Doom

Natural Disasters, Doomsday, Armageddon, Theories, Conjecture, Fact, Megadeath?

Need something more to worry about besides wireless and wired news? Just look these topics over...I have not included Global Warming since it is covered elsewhere and is happening now. Comments are welcomed! Theoretically the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will help us during a natural disaster...and we're covered under chemical, dam failure, earthquake, fire, flood, hazardous material, heat, hurricane, landslide, nuclear, terrorism, thunderstorm, tornado, tsunami, volcano, wildfire, and winter storm. whew! The list could go on and on to include avian flu and other pandemics, questionable scenarios like grey goo from nanotechnology gone bad, human overpopulation, global oil depletion and wars (5-7 year window to avert with alternative sources of energy?) , and other dangers.

I have excluded man-made disasters such as overpopulation, destruction of ecosystems, and weapons of mass destruction; "aliens" and "UFOs", disasters portrayed in Tribal doomsday prophesies(http://www.doomsdayguide.org), Bible prophecy, etc etc. For you who like to philosophize look no further than : http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer1.html

Okay okay I jumped on the Y2K band wagon in 1999and was embarrased when i returned to work after New Year's Day 2000 LOL. The following scenarios are interesting, to

say the least.....Good luck shifting through factual to semi-factual stuff, misinformation

(information that is incorrect), disinformation ( Deliberately misleading information announced publicly or leaked by a government or especially by an intelligence agency) on the Internet. Read the following and decide for yourself what is entertainment and what may be serious stuff. Nothing on this blog constitutes endorsement by the blogger. An alternative is to watch the famous "Doomsday Clock" at http://www.thebulletin.org/ which basically factors in nuclear

risks and now, global warming.

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Tsunami

http://www.armageddononline.org/tsunami.php

When was the biggest tsunami?

The biggest recorded tsunami was produced by the Great Kamchatka Earthquake of 17 October 1737. Its peak reached more than 50 m above sea level on the North Kurile Islands. The Kamchatka Peninsula has the greatest frequency of tsunami, about one event every 12 years. The largest death toll recorded for a tsunami was over 50,000 people on the island of Taiwan on 22 May 1782, followed by 36,417 deaths caused by tsunami associated with the eruption of Krakatau in the Sunda Straits of

Indonesia on 27 August 1883. There are probably larger death tolls, but there is no way to be positive.

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Mega Update:

On December 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, triggered a tsunami-- a series of giant waves -- that inundated coastal areas of Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India, and Malaysia, as well as Indian Ocean islands and parts of East Africa....it was the largest since the Good Friday Earthquake off Alaska in 1964, and the fourth largest since 1900, when accurate global seismographic record-keeping began. This tsunami killed

more than 200,000 people in 11 countries around the Indian Ocean.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami_qanda.shtm

The La Palma Collapse(Canary Islands) - Mega-tsunami: Questions and Answers

National Threats from Tsunamis

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3023/

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Supervolcano aka "Yellowstone Supervolcano" or "Yellowstone Caldera"

Purported to be a major catastrophe on our future horizon...but he probability is very small according to the US Government. A detailed discussion, including full-color illustrations, can be found in U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3024, available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/.

A related blog is at http://skyblu.wordpress.com/yellowstone/supervolcano/.

http://www.thefarm.org/lifestyle/albertbates/akbp12.html reports this eye opening "megadeath"....

..." As recently as 1985, the editorial page of the New York Times, referring to the discovery of the120-mile-wide Chicxulub crater under the tip of the Yucatan and the connection by Luis Alvarez and others to the extinction of the last of the big dinosaurs 65 million years ago, declared, "Astronomers should leave to astrologers the task of seeking the cause of earthly events in the stars." At that time, just 18 years ago, 96% of scientists thought there was no connection between comets or asteroids and mass extinction events. By 13 years ago it was generally accepted, and published in school textbooks, that Chicxulub was the smoke from a celestial pistol that

extinguished 75 percent of life on Earth. These days we look a little more closely at large, crater-like depressions in the Earth's surface. That closer look has led to the discovery of a few dozen 'supervolcanoes' that have, like comets and meteors, punctuated history with mass extinction exclamation points. The largest of these is in Yellowstone Park, marked by a caldera 70 kilometres long and 30 km wide. Eight km beneath Yellowstone lies a huge magma chamber (40 km x 20 km x 10 km), slowly gathering pressure. Vulcanologists do not know when Yellowstone will blow again, but it

popped its cork 1.8 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago, and 640,000 years ago. You do the math.

Supervolcanoes are designated VEI8 - they are an 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index. Each point on the index represents an eruption 10 times more powerful than the previous one. Mount St. Helens is a VEI5. The Greek Island of Santorini is a VEI6. When Santorini popped off 3500 years ago, cinders the size of Volkswagons were thrown out at speeds approaching MACH 2, rising 21000 feet before beginning decent. When Toba erupted in Sumatra 74,000 years ago, at VEI8, the force was 1000 times more explosive than Mt. St. Helens, and it ejected more than 10,000 times more ash."

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Asteroids and Comets

http://www.nineplanets.org/asteroids.html

There are many web sites on this topic. Just a few follow:

Update: Due to budget contraints, NASA has dropped this project

http://hurlbut.jhuapl.edu/NEAR/Education/intro/NEARintro.html

I guess the Government is serious about monitoring and tracking potential near misses or direct hits by asteroids! It is a popular sci-fi theme, and hopefully, will remain in the fictional realm. NASA assures us that "Not that we know of! None of the asteroids or comets discovered so far is on a collision course with Earth. However, we can't speak for those that are not yet discovered. In principle, one of those could hit any time, but statistically the chances are very small."

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro_impact.cfm

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Pole Reversal

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/reversals.html

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/animals.html

Excerpt: ..."You could perhaps take comfort in the knowledge that these reversals happen infrequently—on average every 250,000 years—but maybe not when you consider that it's been over 700,000 years since the last reversal, and the next one may be currently underway.

" ...."...our planet's magnetic shield is rapidly weakening and may be ready to reverse its polarity, causing compasses to point south."

A Pole Reversal in 2012?

http://survive2012.com/geryl1.php

interesting conjectures arise....."...http://www.spiritual-endeavors.org/m-earth/apoleshift.htm

As the field reaches 'zero', or close to it (some estimate the magnetic field will be at 20% of normal during a reversal), complete with periods of rapid and radical changes, something much more threatening than the upcoming reversal will occur.

.ur. First, as the field weakens, so does what many believe is the natural navigatory force for many living creatures. Studies have shown that whales, dolphins, birds and even mollusks and mice use the geomagnetic field as a guiding device. Some, like mice, use it as a directional guide; while cetaceans use the total geomagnetic field as a map, not for directional information, as we would use a compass, but by navigatingthe contours of magnetic "hills and valleys" in a field that is anything but uniform. Without it, whales and dolphins would beach in record numbers, birds and other creatures would be 'lost', unable to find their home. The effect of a magnetic reversal on humans is less known. Confusion might reign, and some theorize a complete 'reboot' of the human mind - the brain IS known to contain magnetite - might occur.

Update: Added Nuclear War to the Disaster Scenarios, although it is Not a natural disaster:
http://threeworldwars.com, http://www.globalresearch.ca
and various other links conjecture about a nuclear disaster

What is "clean" anyway?

We have bacteria on us, on our desks, in our digestive system, all around our house......they are here to stay... A research group at UGA in Athens, Georgia estimates the global population at around five million trillion trillion or 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 with 92-92% in the subsurface of soils. Just a few cause human disease and some benefit us. Recently, other researchers discovered at least 182 species of bacteria from skin swabs from the forearms of six people....they extrapolated an estimate of at least 250 species in our skin, a veritable zoo!

This Bug Could Ruin Your Day..

Yes this virus could ruin your day, not to mention your friends and family, food supplies, and perhaps life as we know it. Don't panic...Uncle Sam will tell us when to start worrying

with their new Flu Rating System, much like Homeland Security's Alerts or National Weather Service's severe storm alerts, etc....

Avian Flu Pandemic predictions for U.S.

"Our results illustrate that the greatest economic cost is due to death (Table 6). Therefore, all other things being equal, the largest economic returns will come from the intervention(s) that prevents the largest number of deaths. A limitation of the model is that, beyond the value of a lost day of work (Table 3), the model does not include any valuation for disruptions in commerce and society. For example, if many long-distance truck drivers were unavailable to drive for 1 or 2 weeks, there might be disruptions in the distribution of perishable items, especially food. These multiplier effects are not accounted for in this model, mainly because an estimate of an appropriate multiplier will depend on who becomes ill, how many become ill, when they become ill, and for how long they are ill."

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no5/meltzer.htm

CDC

More info: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no5/melt_back.htm

Fact Sheet on Legal Authorities for Isolation/Quarantine

http://www.maphtc.iupui.edu/html/CD_Training/SARS/html/Quaratine/factsheetlegal.pdf

Bug Map…on Google Earth

http://declanbutler.info/blog/?p=58

Related Blogs

http://www.ogleearth.com/2006/09/avian_flu_layer.html

http://facweb.furman.edu/~mwiniski/wordpress/2006/12/29/great-google-earth-feature-time-animation/

http://www.gearthblog.com/

Military Enforcement of Health Measures

In light of recent concerns that a strain of avian influenza could mutate to cause a pandemic, President Bush has suggested that Congress should authorize him to employ military forces to enforce any quarantine that might become necessary in the event of an outbreak in the United States. President Bush also suggested that the National Guard might be employed under federal rather than state control to carryout measures to contain such an outbreak. Critics of the proposal have expressed concern that an additional exception to the Posse Comitatus Act,which prohibits active military personnel from carrying out certain law enforcement activities without express statutory authority,would lead to a form of martial law, with the attendant threats to civil liberties

Source: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33201.pdf

Public comments on smallpox preparedness that would have implications for avian flu pandemic……

http://www.cchconline.org/pr/publiccomments.php3

CCHC'S SUMMARY OF CONCERNS REGARDING THE ACIP PROPOSAL

MANDATORY QUARANTINE MAY INCREASE EXPOSURE: The requirement that all individuals with confirmed, probable and suspected cases of smallpox infection be placed in a "Type C" facility may expose the noninfected (the not yet confirmed) to smallpox, leading to an increase in smallpox infection. It also appears to be proposed without a court order. (Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, page C-4 and C-5).

MANDATAORY VACCINATION VIOLATES FREEDOM OF CONSCIENCE: The requirement that all persons entering a Type C facility must be vaccinated with smallpox vaccine exposes these individuals to the side effects of the smallpox vaccine. Most may be more than willing, but not all will agree to the vaccine. Small pox vaccine can cause severe side effects including death. This constitutes a state-imposed injection of a life-threatening substance, violating the individual's freedom of conscience and medical ethics. And, until proven otherwise, there is no guarantee that the vaccine will eliminate the risk of illness even for those who are vaccinated. In addition, unlike those who volunteer for vaccination, there is no requirement that these individuals read, understand and sign a consent form for the vaccination. (Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, page C-5)

MIXING POTENTIALLY NON-CONTAGIOUS WITH CONTAGIOUS: Although officials are to set up "Type X" facilities to house those with "uncertain diagnoses" they propose that these individuals may be placed in Type C facilities-with those who are confirmed to have smallpox. This requirement may expose these individuals to smallpox, endangering their lives. (Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, page C-5 and C-7)

LOSS OF FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT FOR NON-VACCINATED: Although the proposal states those refusing vaccination, who are assumed to be exposed, can be sent home ("Type R"), it allows government officials to detain them outside their home-without a court order. This permits state officials to impose a loss of freedom on those who choose to exercise their freedom of conscience. It also permits the livelihood of individuals to be threatend. Vaccination itself carries risks, including the risk of getting the disease from the vaccination, spreading the illness beyond the limited location of those actually diagnosed with smallpox through shedding of the vaccine, and death and disability as a side effect of the vaccination. Those who do not choose to get the vaccine are those who have chosen one risk over another. If the vaccine is effective-the only type of vaccine that should be given-those who are vaccinated need not fear those who are not. Those who choose not to be vaccinated should not be penalized for exercising their freedom of conscience.

POLICE POWERS VIOLATE DUE PROCESS: The proposal to provide "security staff " with the capacity to detain persons for examination and quarantine and the power to enforce mandatory isolation of contagious patients is cause for concern. As read the proposal would endow security staff with the power to enter homes and haul citizens away before there is any clear evidence of communicability or danger. This is a violation of due process rights and an individual's freedom of movement and security of home. And in the case of forced detention and vaccination, a violation of the person's right to a freedom of conscience. (Guidelines for Smallpox Vaccination Clinics, Annex 2, p. A2-10 and A2-17 and Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, p C-17)

With the implementation of such police powers, the agency should not expect to secure the second factor of the three factors noted as necessary for successful quarantine: public trust and compliance. (Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, page C-17)

ENDANGERMENT OF INDIVIDUALS THROUGH UNQUALIFIED STAFF?: Requirements for personnel are lax, leading to possible endangerment of human life. Medical Screeners, responsible for interviewing citizens to be vaccinated, determining exposure risk, ascertaining risks of vaccination, doing risk-benefit analysis and assessing medical contraindications need not be a physician or nurse. An undefined "paraprofessional" is allowed-perhaps someone who may not be held to a high standard of medical ethics. Training is not described. Although screeners can ask a "physician consultant" to make a final determination regarding vaccination risks, screeners may not have enough knowledge to know when to ask for help, or may be more liable to succumb to assembly line pressures during a crisis. (Guidelines for Smallpox Vaccination Clinics, Annex 2, page A2-9)

In addition, Vaccination Administrators also need only be paraprofessionals, although doctors and nurses qualify. Training is limited to a CDC video, and although practice and mock drills are encouraged, they are not required. So actual practice and experience are not necessary. Vaccinators must also "be prepared to respond to medical emergencies that may occur within the vaccination area." It is not clear that such vaccinators must be qualified in CPR, emergency training, first aid, IV insertion, anaphylactic shock, or any other emergency situations. There is little to assure that public that qualified people will be on hand to evaluate risks, and handle emergencies. (Guidelines for Smallpox Vaccination Clinics, Annex 2, page A2-10 and A2-11) .

EXPERIMENTAL VACCINE WITHOUT CONSENT?: It appears that only those volunteering for the vaccination would be required to give their consent to vaccination "if the vaccine is still on Investigational New Drug status". Medical screeners are to ensure that the consent form is "read, understood and signed" by each recipient. (Guidelines for Smallpox Vaccination Clinics, Annex 2, page A2-9). For individuals who are sick, but may or may not have smallpox, it appears the vaccination would be mandatory, regardless of the risks. This is a violation of medical ethics and freedom of conscience. (Isolation and Quarantine Guidelines, Guide C, page C-5)

GOVERNMENT HEALTH SURVEILLANCE ENCOURAGED: Year-around reports to state health officials of all patients with illness that includes fever and vesicular/pustular rash are proposed. There is no acknowledgement or requirement of patient consent. Neither is there a requirement that such patients be notified that their information may be disclosed, or has been disclosed. (Surveillance, Contact Tracing, and Epidemiological Investigation, Guide A, pg A-1)

GOVERNMENT DATA COLLECTION VIOLATES PATIENT CONFIDENTIALITY: Proposed is health and personal data collection after the first report of a case of smallpox. Data to be reported includes name, birth date, social security number, race, occupation, address, prior medical conditions, phone number, date of fever onset, vaccination status, date and place of medical examination, and final diagnosis, including not smallpox. Data is reported on each suspected/probable/confirmed smallpox case without patient consent or notification. In addition, some of the data - social security number, birth date, race, prior medical conditions, and occupation - seem unnecessary for simple tracking of illness. If plans include additional research on these individuals, a specific research consent should be obtained. In addition, there is no clear rationale for collection of data on those who are not confirmed cases, leaving citizens vulnerable to arbitrary decisions regarding data collection. (Surveillance, Contact Tracing, and Epidemiological Investigation, Guide A, pg A-9)